7KCR Express - A monthly wrap-up of Indian Financial Market : Apr 2024

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How India-Pakistan Tensions Impact the Stock Market: A Historical Analysis

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  How India-Pakistan Tensions Impact the Stock Market Whenever geopolitical tensions rise—especially between India and Pakistan—investors often ask: What happens to the market? Should I stay invested? Should I exit? The emotional response is understandable. War or military conflict brings uncertainty, and markets hate uncertainty. But when we analyze past data, the story might surprise you. Let’s analyze how the Nifty50 index has reacted to some of the most notable Indo-Pak conflict events over the past few decades: What the Data Tells Us 1. Short-Term Shock, Long-Term Recovery: Most events triggered minor to moderate declines or volatility in the 1-month window. However, in 4 out of 5 cases, the market gave positive returns in the 6- and 12-month periods following the event. 2. Exception – 2001 Parliament Attack: This is the only event after which the Nifty50 remained negative even 12 months later. It coincided with broader global uncertainties including post-9/11 fe...
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